In the horological theatre that is the Swiss watch export market, April 2025 will be remembered not for a true renaissance of global demand, but for a dramatic, if artificial, flare-up driven by geopolitics. Swiss watch exports surged by an eye-popping 18.2% year-on-year to CHF 2.5 billion, a headline figure that initially suggests a market in full bloom. Yet dig beneath the polished surface and the lustre fades…
Exports to the U.S. soared by an extraordinary 149.2%, making up a third of total export value. But this is not a story of Rolexes and Omegas flying off shelves in Manhattan. Instead, it reflects a classic industry manoeuvre: moving inventory early to avoid tariff shocks. It’s a page straight out of the 2018–2019 playbook, when trade tensions with China prompted similar moves. Then, as now, the effect is temporary and distorting.
Strip out the American spike, and April would have seen a 6.4% decline, not a gain. Steel watches drove volume (+18.9%), while precious metal and bimetallic models bolstered value (+23.4% and +44.5%, respectively). The high-end segment, watches priced above CHF 3,000 export-value, carried the industry on its back, registering a 22.9% uptick. The mid-tier CHF 200–500 segment, often the bellwether for aspirational buyers, fell by 1.2%. That’s not the sign of a healthy funnel.
More worryingly, the two major Asian markets, China and Hong Kong, continued their descent, with declines of 30.5% and 22.8%, respectively (!) That’s not just a blip; it’s part of a sustained downturn that began in late 2023. Spending has cooled, and macro headwinds in the region, weakened consumer confidence. And I’d say it is safe to assume that geopolitical frictions are potentially also weighing on demand. For a sector that very much banked on Chinese enthusiasm, this new reality is sobering.
The situation in Singapore (-9.2%) echoes the broader malaise in Asia, while Japan and the UK offered only tepid growth (1.9% and 1.6%). In the end, April’s surge is real only in Swiss francs on paper. What comes next, after the inventory has landed, and the customs dust has settled, is anyone’s best guess at the moment. While I’m forever the optimist, even I’m struggling here with managing my own expectations for what is to come.
Adding to the tension is the industry’s now ritualistic annual price increase, a practice that feels increasingly out of touch. Each spring, like clockwork, the major brands raise prices across the board, regardless of market conditions, currency shifts, or consumer sentiment. What once might have been justified by rising production costs or currency volatility has become a zombie-like reflex, a pricing orthodoxy detached from reality. For seasoned collectors and watch enthusiasts, many of whom have loyally supported these maisons for decades, this stubbornness is beginning to wear thin. It’s one thing to position your product as exclusive; it’s another to test the limits of goodwill in an era where transparency, value, and community matter more than ever. If the macro winds continue to shift, this kind of tone-deaf pricing strategy could become a serious liability, alienating core supporters just when their loyalty is needed most.
Next quarter’s results should already help us get a better understanding of where we are heading. Stay tuned?