Swiss watchmaking seems to have entered a period of subtle but significant transition. New export data for March 2026, released by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, paints a picture of modest contraction in value but surprising resilience in volume, underscoring a market in the throes of structural change.
Swiss watch exports in March fell by 1.0% in value compared to the same month last year, bringing the total for the first quarter to 6.2 billion francs, a marginal increase of 1.4% over the first three months of 2025. The decline in value was driven by a 4.0% drop in exports of watches made from precious metals and a sharper 9.0% fall in steel watches. Yet, volumes actually increased, with nearly 57,000 more watches exported than in the previous year. The rise was led by steel watches (+5.8%) and those made from other metals (+23.8%), suggesting that while consumers may be spending less per unit, they are still buying.
This divergence between value and volume is particularly striking. It indicates that the market for Swiss watches is becoming more price-sensitive, with buyers opting for more accessible models or seeking better value within their preferred price range. The only segment to buck the trend was watches priced between 200 and 500 francs (export value), which saw a 15.4% increase in value.
The United States, the world’s largest market for Swiss watches, recorded a 1.6% decline, a modest but notable softening that may reflect broader economic caution among American consumers. Meanwhile, France’s extraordinary 72.4% surge in March is not a sign of sudden Gallic enthusiasm for Swiss horology, but rather the result of re-exports to other destinations, distorting the true picture of domestic demand. Elsewhere, the United Kingdom (+3.2%), China (+4.2%), and Singapore (+4.9%) all posted gains, suggesting that appetite for Swiss watches remains robust in these markets. Hong Kong, a traditional hub for luxury watch sales, held steady with a 0.5% increase. However, Japan (-12.6%) and Germany (-8.5%) experienced significant declines, raising questions about the resilience of demand in these mature markets.
The Middle East presented a mixed bag. Despite ongoing regional tensions, the United Arab Emirates saw a slight uptick (+0.7%), while Saudi Arabia recorded a steep 16.8% drop. The data suggests that while the UAE’s luxury market remains insulated from immediate geopolitical shocks, Saudi Arabia’s watch buyers may be adopting a more cautious approach.
Looking at the first quarter as a whole, the 1.4% increase in export value is a modest improvement. Several major markets, including Japan (-0.4%), Hong Kong (-0.8%), and China (-0.7%), appear to have reached the bottom of their respective cycles, with declines narrowing compared to previous quarters. This could signal a period of stabilization, but then again, I do not have that often-discussed crystal ball..
The latest figures underscore a broader realignment within the Swiss watch industry. At the lower end, the growth in volume but decline in value suggests that consumers are trading down, opting for more affordable models or seeking value in the pre-owned market. For mid-range brands, the challenge will be to maintain desirability and justify price increases in an environment where buyers are increasingly discerning. Looking back at the past couple of years, watch brands were certainly not afraid to (dramatically) increase prices, so forgive me if I don’t feel bad for anyone.
At the ultra-luxury end, the picture is more nuanced. While the data does not break out performance for watches above 3,000 francs, the decline in precious metal watches may indicate a softening of demand for the most exclusive timepieces, or simply a shift in consumer preferences toward steel sports watches, which, yes indeed, continue to dominate the conversation.
The resilience of key markets like China and the US, the ability of brands to innovate and capture demand at lower price points, and the ongoing impact of geopolitical and economic uncertainty will all shape the trajectory of Swiss watchmaking. The golden age of unbridled growth may be over. If Swiss watchmakers are to thrive in this evolving landscape, they may find that the path forward lies not in incremental price adjustments but in genuine innovation, whether through design, technology, or value proposition. The days of relying solely on heritage and exclusivity to justify ever-higher price tags appear to be waning; the market now demands more. How the industry responds to this challenge will define its next chapter.
A Tale of Two Trends: Value Dips, Volume Rises