China has long been the jewelJewels Watch jewels are small, synthetic sapphire or ruby bearings that are used in mechanical watches to reduce friction and wear on moving parts. They are typically made from corundum. They are used as bearings for a.o. the pivots to reduce friction. [Learn More] in the crownCrown The knob on the outside of the watch that you typically use to either wind the mainspring or set the time [Learn More] for the global luxury watch industry. For years, it was the engine propelling Swiss watch exports to record highs, with the mainland and Hong Kong accounting for nearly a third of all Swiss watch sales by value. But as of 2024, that engine is sputtering. Swiss exports to China plummeted by more than 25 percent last year, with Hong Kong not far behind, shedding nearly 19 percent of its business. The numbers are more than just a dip; they signal a fundamental shift in consumer behavior and economic realities within the world’s largest luxury market.
At the heart of this slowdown is a transformation in Chinese buyer sentiment. The pandemic, regulatory crackdowns, and a cooling economy have conspired to temper what was once a speculative frenzy for brands like Rolex and Omega. Gone are the days when watches were flaunted as mere trophies of wealth. Today’s affluent consumers, particularly the younger generation, are showing a pronounced preference for subtlety and authenticity over ostentation. Where once conspicuous consumption reigned, now a more discerning and digitally savvy buyer seeks value, local cultural resonance, and engagement that transcends logos. Note that the same is seen across the luxury industry (including luxury cars), this is not limited to luxury watches at all.
Yet, despite this downturn, China remains a vast and vital market. In 2024, its watch market was valued at approximately $18 billion and is forecast to grow steadily to $30 billion over the next decade. The rise of e-commerce is reshaping how watches are bought and sold. Try buying anything in China without your smartphone, I challenge you. More than 60 percent of watch sales in China now occur online, dominated by platforms like Tmall and JD.com. Brands are innovating rapidly, leveraging livestream events, influencer marketing, and bespoke digital experiences to connect with a new breed of consumer who lives and breathes their smartphones.
In this evolving landscape, heritage brands still hold sway at the very top of the market. But it is clear that the mid-tier steel watch segment, once the growth driver of the Chinese market, is facing significant pressure. These models, prized for their everyday versatility and status signaling, are now caught in the crossfire of economic caution and shifting tastes. Swiss watchmakers are responding to these challenges. Efforts to create region-specific collections, invest in Chinese-language digital platforms, and partner with local influencers underscore a recognition that the old playbook no longer works. Instead of relying solely on heritage and exclusivity, brands are crafting narratives that resonate with younger, more pragmatic buyers, consumers who value craftsmanship but demand cultural relevance and authenticity.
This recalibration is both a challenge and an opportunity. The Swiss watch industry has always been adept at adapting to new realities, just never the fastest at doing so… but the stakes are higher than ever.
Not Quite Time to Panic